Fidelity’s Parth Gargava says Bitcoin could be shifting into a supercycle, with ETF demand, friendlier U.S. policy and market maturation muting the classic boom‑bust halving pattern.
Bitcoin may be transitioning away from its traditional four-year cycle into an extended “supercycle” characterized by prolonged price highs and less severe drawdowns, according to a Fidelity Labs executive.
Fidelity Labs gives their crypto outlook
Parth Gargava, managing partner at Fidelity Labs, made the remarks in Fidelity’s Jan. 9 crypto outlook video for 2026, outlining a potential shift in the cryptocurrency’s market behavior driven by structural demand changes.
Bitcoin has historically followed a four-year cycle pattern closely tied to its halving events, with price peaks occurring approximately 18 months after each halving, Gargava stated. The 2016 halving preceded a peak in December 2017, while the 2020 halving was followed by another peak in 2021, according to the presentation.
The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, prompting debate among market participants about whether Bitcoin has already reached its cyclical peak or whether market dynamics have fundamentally changed.