Bitcoin bulls need 2 things: Positive BTC ETF flows and to reclaim $112,500

After $566M in ETF outflows and a loss of the STH cost basis, Bitcoin is defending $100k. Here’s what must change for a sustainable climb.Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $101,328 as of press time, erasing the 2.3% recovery that had briefly pushed the price to $103,885 the day before.

The breakdown confirms what on-chain data has been telegraphing about demand momentum fading, long-term holders selling into weakness, and the market testing structural supports last seen during mid-cycle corrections.

The two consecutive dips below $100,000 on Nov. 4 and 5 add to what on-chain data suggested.

According to a Nov. 5 report by Glassnode, the path back to bullish footing requires two clear reversals.

First, US spot Bitcoin ETF flows must turn net positive after two weeks of daily outflows between $150 million and $700 million.

Second, price must reclaim the Short-Term Holders’ cost basis at $112,500 and hold it as support.

Without both flips, Bitcoin risks sliding toward the Active Investors’ Realized price near $88,500, a level that has historically marked deeper corrective phases.

Structural breakdown

Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to hold above $112,500, the average acquisition price for coins held less than 155 days. That threshold matters because when prices trade below their cost basis, Short-Term Holders sit on unrealized losses, and selling pressure builds.

The current 11% discount from that level is historically deep enough to invite further downside if support does not materialize.

At $100,000, roughly 71% of the circulating supply remains in profit, placing the market near the lower bound of the 70% to 90% equilibrium range typical during mid-cycle slowdowns. This zone often produces brief relief rallies toward the Short-Term Holders’ cost basis, but sustained recoveries require prolonged consolidation and renewed demand.

If selling pushes a larger share of supply into the loss zone, the market risks transitioning into a deeper bearish phase.

The Relative Unrealized Loss, which represents total unrealized losses as a percentage of market capitalization, currently stands at 3.1%, well below the 5% threshold typically associated with panic-driven selloffs.

The 2022-2023 bear market pushed this metric above 10%. The current reading suggests orderly revaluation, not capitulation, but the cushion is thin.

Quiet distribution from long-term holders

The surprise has been long-term holder behavior. Since July 2025, this cohort has shed approximately 300,000 BTC, reducing supply from 14.7 million to 14.4 million.

Unlike earlier distributions when seasoned investors sold into strength during rallies, they are now selling into weakness as prices drift lower, a behavioral shift that signals fatigue and reduced conviction.

When accounting for new maturations, which are coins aging past 155 days, the spending becomes clearer.